La Liga (Spain) · Fri, Oct 9 · 19:00 · Málaga vs Espanyol
Likeliest: Espanyol win · 35%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 35% for the away win. The market says 35%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Málaga32%35%−2
OursMarket
Draw33%30%+2
OursMarket
Espanyol35%35%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 45% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 52% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 65% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 67% | 70% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Málaga
LossDrawDrawLossLoss
- Sep 20 · at Getafe (A)0-1
- Sep 17 · v Villarreal (H)1-3
- Sep 13 · at Celta Vigo (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · v Levante UD (H)0-0
- Aug 30 · at Real Madrid (A)0-4
Espanyol
LossDrawWinLossLoss
- Sep 18 · v Elche (H)1-3
- Sep 15 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · at Osasuna (A)2-0
- Sep 6 · v Sevilla (H)1-1
- Aug 29 · at Real Sociedad (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Málaga | Espanyol |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-5-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-6-2 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.