La Liga 2 (Spain) · Wed, Jun 10 · 19:00 · Málaga vs Las Palmas
Likeliest: Málaga win · 63%
A 63% home win. The market says 44%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Málaga63%44%+18
OursMarket
Draw21%27%−6
OursMarket
Las Palmas16%28%−12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 47% | −12 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 51% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 72% | +12 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 56% | −18 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 73% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 61% | +19 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Málaga
WinDrawDrawWinWin
- Jun 7 · at Las Palmas (A)1-0
- May 31 · at Real Zaragoza (A)2-0
- May 24 · v Racing de Santander (H)1-1
- May 24 · v Racing Santander (H)1-1
- May 16 · at Ceuta (A)4-1
Las Palmas
LossWinDrawWinLoss
- Jun 7 · v Málaga (H)0-1
- May 31 · at Deportivo La Coruña (A)2-1
- May 24 · v Real Zaragoza (H)1-1
- May 16 · at Almería (A)2-1
- May 10 · at FC Andorra (A)1-5
| Last 10 games | Málaga | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.