La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Sep 6 · 16:30 · Málaga vs Levante UD
Likeliest: Málaga win · 50%
A 50% home win. The market says 40%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Málaga50%40%+10
OursMarket
Draw25%29%−4
OursMarket
Levante UD25%31%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 49% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 55% | −8 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 69% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 60% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 71% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 56% | +11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Málaga
DrawWinLossDrawLoss
- Aug 30 · at Real Madrid (A)0-4
- Aug 24 · v Deportivo La Coruña (H)1-1
- Aug 19 · at Atletico Madrid (A)0-2
- Jun 20 · at Almería (A)2-1
- Jun 14 · v Almería (H)0-0
Levante UD
WinLossLossDrawWin
- Aug 29 · v Real Betis (H)5-2
- Aug 24 · at Osasuna (A)0-0
- Aug 16 · at Espanyol (A)0-3
- May 23 · at Real Betis (A)1-2
- May 17 · v Mallorca (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Málaga | Levante UD |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-6-1 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.