La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sun, May 24 · 16:30 · Málaga vs Racing Santander
Likeliest: Málaga win · 51%
We make it 37% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 31%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Málaga51%57%−6
OursMarket
Draw23%22%+1
OursMarket
Racing Santander27%21%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 69% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 66% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 79% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 43% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 73% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Málaga
LossLossWinWinWin
- May 16 · at Ceuta (A)4-1
- May 9 · v Sporting Gijón (H)2-1
- May 2 · at SD Eibar (A)4-2
- Apr 25 · v Castellón (H)2-3
- Apr 19 · at Almería (A)2-3
Racing Santander
WinDrawWinWinWin
- May 16 · v Real Valladolid (H)4-1
- May 10 · at Leganés (A)2-1
- May 3 · v Huesca (H)4-2
- Apr 26 · at Ceuta (A)0-0
- Apr 17 · at Real Sociedad II (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Málaga | Racing Santander |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.