La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Oct 18 · 16:30 · Málaga vs Real Sociedad
Likeliest: Real Sociedad win · 46%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 46% for the away win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Málaga26%30%−4
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Real Sociedad46%44%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 53% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 56% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | 70% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 36% | 40% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Málaga
DrawDrawLossLossDraw
- Oct 9 · v Espanyol (H)1-1
- Sep 20 · at Getafe (A)0-1
- Sep 17 · v Villarreal (H)1-3
- Sep 13 · at Celta Vigo (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · v Levante UD (H)0-0
Real Sociedad
LossLossWinWinDraw
- Oct 15 · at Royale Union Saint-Gilloise (A)1-1
- Oct 11 · v Deportivo La Coruña (H)3-2
- Sep 20 · at Valencia (A)3-2
- Sep 17 · v Bournemouth (H)1-2
- Sep 13 · v Atletico Madrid (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | Málaga | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-5-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-7-2 | 2-5-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.