La Liga (Spain) · Thu, Sep 17 · 19:30 · Málaga vs Villarreal
Likeliest: Villarreal win · 50%
A tight one: we make it 50% for the away win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Málaga24%27%−2
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Villarreal50%48%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 60% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 50% | 52% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 76% | 73% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 33% | 36% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Málaga
LossDrawLossDrawDraw
- Sep 13 · at Celta Vigo (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · v Levante UD (H)0-0
- Aug 30 · at Real Madrid (A)0-4
- Aug 24 · v Deportivo La Coruña (H)1-1
- Aug 19 · at Atletico Madrid (A)0-2
Villarreal
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- Sep 14 · v Real Betis (H)1-2
- Sep 8 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)2-3
- Sep 5 · v Deportivo La Coruña (H)2-3
- Aug 28 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)0-1
- Aug 23 · at Atletico Madrid (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Málaga | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-7-1 | 1-5-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.