ASEAN Championship (Asia) · Sun, Aug 16 · 13:00 · Malaysia vs Vietnam
Likeliest: Vietnam win · 39%
A 33% home win. The market says 18%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Malaysia33%18%+15
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+2
OursMarket
Vietnam39%56%−17
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 47% | −7 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 46% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 44% | +17 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 82% | −15 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 24% | +22 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Malaysia
WinWinWinLossWin
- Aug 8 · v Philippines (H)1-0
- Aug 1 · at Thailand (A)0-2
- Jul 28 · v Laos (H)4-0
- Jul 25 · at Myanmar (A)2-1
- Sep 8 · v Palestine (H)1-0
Vietnam
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Aug 7 · v Cambodia (H)3-1
- Aug 3 · at Indonesia (A)3-0
- Jul 31 · v Singapore (H)0-0
- Jul 24 · at East Timor (A)7-0
- Jul 18 · v Myanmar (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | Malaysia | Vietnam |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-1 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.