Africa Cup of Nations Qualifiers · Fri, Nov 13 · 19:00 · Mali vs Rwanda
Likeliest: Mali win · 64%
Likely scores: 2–1 24% · 1–0 18% · 0–0 16%
We make it 43% for both teams to score. The market says 35%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Mali64%75%−11
OursMarket
Draw27%18%+9
OursMarket
Rwanda9%7%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 62% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 47% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 43% | 35% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 91% | 93% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 36% | 25% | +11 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 82% | −9 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 88% | 91% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 0.6 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Mali
DrawLossDrawWinDraw
- Oct 4 · at Morocco (A)1-1
- Sep 29 · at Liberia (A)1-0
- Sep 25 · v Cape Verde (H)0-0
- Jun 4 · at Iran (A)0-2
- Mar 31 · at Russia (A)0-0
Rwanda
WinWinDrawWinDraw
- Oct 5 · v Kenya (H)0-0
- Sep 29 · at Cape Verde (A)2-1
- Sep 25 · v Liberia (H)0-0
- Mar 30 · v Estonia (H)2-0
- Mar 27 · v Grenada (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | Mali | Rwanda |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-2 | 3-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.3 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 29% |
| Both teams scored | 14% | 14% |
| Clean sheets | 57% | 57% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.