La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sun, Aug 30 · 17:00 · Mallorca vs AD Ceuta
Likeliest: Mallorca win · 53%
We make it 56% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 43%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Mallorca53%66%−13
OursMarket
Draw24%21%+4
OursMarket
AD Ceuta23%13%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 57% | −13 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 51% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 87% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 34% | +14 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 79% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 83% | −14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Mallorca
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Aug 24 · at Granada (A)0-2
- Aug 15 · v Real Valladolid (H)2-0
- May 23 · v Real Oviedo (H)3-0
- May 17 · at Levante (A)0-2
- May 13 · at Getafe (A)1-3
AD Ceuta
WinWinLossLoss
- Aug 22 · v Las Palmas (H)0-2
- Aug 15 · at FC Andorra (A)1-5
- May 30 · v Albacete Balompié (H)1-0
- May 24 · at FC Andorra (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Mallorca | AD Ceuta |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | — |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | — |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | — |
| Both teams scored | 40% | — |
| Clean sheets | 40% | — |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.