La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Jan 17 · 15:15 · Mallorca vs Athletic Club
Likeliest: Athletic Club win · 38%
We make it 50% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 38%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Mallorca36%26%+9
OursMarket
Draw26%31%−5
OursMarket
Athletic Club38%42%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 38% | +12 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 46% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 58% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 74% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 69% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 38% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Mallorca
WinLossDrawLossLoss
- Jan 11 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)1-2
- Jan 4 · v Girona (H)1-2
- Dec 19 · at Valencia (A)1-1
- Dec 16 · at Deportivo La Coruña (A)0-1
- Dec 13 · v Elche (H)3-1
Athletic Club
DrawLossLossDrawWin
- Jan 13 · at Cultural Leonesa (A)4-3
- Jan 3 · at Osasuna (A)1-1
- Dec 22 · v Espanyol (H)1-2
- Dec 14 · at Celta de Vigo (A)0-2
- Dec 10 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Mallorca | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.