La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Mar 15 · 13:00 · Mallorca vs Espanyol
Likeliest: Mallorca win · 47%
We make it 61% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 41%.
20 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Mallorca47%40%+7
OursMarket
Draw23%30%−7
OursMarket
Espanyol30%30%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 41% | +20 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 48% | +15 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 70% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 60% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 70% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 58% | +3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Mallorca
LossLossLossLossDraw
- Mar 7 · at Osasuna (A)2-2
- Feb 28 · v Real Sociedad (H)0-1
- Feb 22 · at Celta de Vigo (A)0-2
- Feb 15 · v Real Betis (H)1-2
- Feb 7 · at FC Barcelona (A)0-3
Espanyol
LossDrawLossDrawDraw
- Mar 9 · v Real Oviedo (H)1-1
- Mar 1 · at Elche (A)2-2
- Feb 21 · at Atlético Madrid (A)2-4
- Feb 14 · v Celta de Vigo (H)2-2
- Feb 9 · at Villarreal (A)1-4
| Last 10 games | Mallorca | Espanyol |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 0-4-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.