La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Jan 4 · 17:30 · Mallorca vs Girona
Likeliest: Mallorca win · 54%
A 54% home win. The market says 42%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Mallorca54%42%+12
OursMarket
Draw23%30%−7
OursMarket
Girona23%27%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 42% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 49% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 73% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 58% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 70% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 61% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Mallorca
WinDrawWinLossDraw
- Dec 19 · at Valencia (A)1-1
- Dec 16 · at Deportivo La Coruña (A)0-1
- Dec 13 · v Elche (H)3-1
- Dec 5 · at Real Oviedo (A)0-0
- Dec 2 · at Numancia (A)3-2
Girona
DrawLossLossWinLoss
- Dec 21 · v Atlético Madrid (H)0-3
- Dec 12 · at Real Sociedad (A)2-1
- Dec 7 · at Elche (A)0-3
- Dec 3 · at Ourense CF (A)1-2
- Nov 30 · v Real Madrid (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Mallorca | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.