La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sun, Oct 11 · 16:30 · Mallorca vs Las Palmas
Likeliest: Mallorca win · 62%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 62% for the home win. The market says 61%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Mallorca62%61%+1
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Las Palmas15%16%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 52% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 50% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 84% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 39% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 79% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Mallorca
DrawWinWinLossDraw
- Oct 4 · at Girona FC (A)0-0
- Sep 27 · v Almería (H)0-1
- Sep 19 · at Real Sociedad B (A)1-0
- Sep 13 · v CE Sabadell (H)2-0
- Sep 5 · at CD Eldense (A)0-0
Las Palmas
DrawWinLossLossDraw
- Oct 4 · v Real Valladolid (H)2-2
- Sep 27 · at Eibar (A)2-3
- Sep 20 · v Burgos Club de Fútbol (H)1-2
- Sep 12 · at Cádiz (A)1-0
- Sep 4 · v Leganés (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Mallorca | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.5 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 70% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.