La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Nov 29 · 13:00 · Mallorca vs Osasuna
Likeliest: Osasuna win · 46%
A 46% away win. The market says 29%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Mallorca26%40%−14
OursMarket
Draw28%31%−3
OursMarket
Osasuna46%29%+17
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 38% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 71% | −17 |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | 60% | +14 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 69% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 36% | 58% | −22 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Mallorca
DrawWinLossWinLoss
- Nov 22 · at Villarreal (A)1-2
- Nov 9 · v Getafe (H)1-0
- Nov 2 · at Real Betis (A)0-3
- Oct 29 · at Atlètic Sant Just (A)2-0
- Oct 26 · v Levante (H)1-1
Osasuna
LossWinDrawLossLoss
- Nov 22 · v Real Sociedad (H)1-3
- Nov 8 · at Sevilla (A)0-1
- Nov 3 · at Real Oviedo (A)0-0
- Oct 29 · at CE Sant Jordi (A)5-0
- Oct 26 · v Celta de Vigo (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | Mallorca | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.