La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Apr 12 · 14:15 · Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano
Likeliest: Mallorca win · 40%
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Mallorca40%40%−1
OursMarket
Draw28%30%−2
OursMarket
Rayo Vallecano33%30%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 43% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 50% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 70% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 60% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 70% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 58% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Mallorca
LossDrawWinLossWin
- Apr 4 · v Real Madrid (H)2-1
- Mar 21 · at Elche (A)1-2
- Mar 15 · v Espanyol (H)2-1
- Mar 7 · at Osasuna (A)2-2
- Feb 28 · v Real Sociedad (H)0-1
Rayo Vallecano
DrawLossLossWinWin
- Apr 9 · v AEK Athens (H)3-0
- Apr 3 · v Elche (H)1-0
- Mar 22 · at FC Barcelona (A)0-1
- Mar 19 · v Samsunspor (H)0-1
- Mar 16 · v Levante (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Mallorca | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.