La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Feb 15 · 20:00 · Mallorca vs Real Betis
Likeliest: Mallorca win · 45%
We make it 60% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 45%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Mallorca45%33%+12
OursMarket
Draw24%30%−6
OursMarket
Real Betis31%38%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 45% | +15 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 52% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 62% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 67% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 70% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 46% | +13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Mallorca
LossWinLossWinLoss
- Feb 7 · at FC Barcelona (A)0-3
- Feb 2 · v Sevilla (H)4-1
- Jan 25 · at Atlético Madrid (A)0-3
- Jan 17 · v Athletic Club (H)3-2
- Jan 11 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)1-2
Real Betis
LossWinWinLossWin
- Feb 8 · at Atlético Madrid (A)1-0
- Feb 5 · v Atlético Madrid (H)0-5
- Feb 1 · v Valencia (H)2-1
- Jan 29 · v Feyenoord (H)2-1
- Jan 25 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Mallorca | Real Betis |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.