La Liga (Spain) · Sat, May 23 · 19:00 · Mallorca vs Real Oviedo
Likeliest: Mallorca win · 51%
We make it 66% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 49%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Mallorca51%64%−13
OursMarket
Draw25%22%+3
OursMarket
Real Oviedo24%14%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 34% | 51% | −17 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 47% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 86% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 36% | +13 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 78% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 82% | −14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Mallorca
LossWinDrawLossLoss
- May 17 · at Levante (A)0-2
- May 13 · at Getafe (A)1-3
- May 10 · v Villarreal (H)1-1
- May 1 · at Girona (A)1-0
- Apr 25 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)1-2
Real Oviedo
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- May 17 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)0-1
- May 14 · at Real Madrid (A)0-2
- May 10 · v Getafe (H)0-0
- May 3 · at Real Betis (A)0-3
- Apr 26 · v Elche (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Mallorca | Real Oviedo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.