La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sat, Aug 15 · 19:30 · Mallorca vs Real Valladolid
Likeliest: Mallorca win · 70%
A 70% home win. The market says 55%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Mallorca70%55%+15
OursMarket
Draw18%26%−8
OursMarket
Real Valladolid11%19%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 48% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 81% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 30% | 45% | −15 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 74% | +8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 86% | 75% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Mallorca
WinDrawLossLossWin
- May 23 · v Real Oviedo (H)3-0
- May 17 · at Levante (A)0-2
- May 13 · at Getafe (A)1-3
- May 10 · v Villarreal (H)1-1
- May 1 · at Girona (A)1-0
Real Valladolid
LossWinLossLossLoss
- May 31 · at Almería (A)0-1
- May 24 · v Deportivo La Coruña (H)0-2
- May 16 · at Racing Santander (A)1-4
- May 9 · v Real Zaragoza (H)2-0
- May 3 · at Las Palmas (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Mallorca | Real Valladolid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 0-2-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.