La Liga (Spain) · Mon, Feb 2 · 20:00 · Mallorca vs Sevilla
Likeliest: Mallorca win · 41%
We make it 56% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 42%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Mallorca41%36%+4
OursMarket
Draw25%30%−5
OursMarket
Sevilla34%33%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 42% | +14 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 50% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 67% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 64% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 70% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 52% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Mallorca
DrawLossLossWinLoss
- Jan 25 · at Atlético Madrid (A)0-3
- Jan 17 · v Athletic Club (H)3-2
- Jan 11 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)1-2
- Jan 4 · v Girona (H)1-2
- Dec 19 · at Valencia (A)1-1
Sevilla
LossLossLossDrawWin
- Jan 24 · v Athletic Club (H)2-1
- Jan 19 · at Elche (A)2-2
- Jan 12 · v Celta de Vigo (H)0-1
- Jan 4 · v Levante (H)0-3
- Dec 20 · at Real Madrid (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Mallorca | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.