La Liga (Spain) · Tue, Apr 21 · 17:00 · Mallorca vs Valencia
Likeliest: Mallorca win · 45%
We make it 52% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 43%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Mallorca45%37%+7
OursMarket
Draw27%30%−3
OursMarket
Valencia29%33%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 43% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 50% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 67% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 63% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 70% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 54% | +8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Mallorca
DrawWinLossWinWin
- Apr 12 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)3-0
- Apr 4 · v Real Madrid (H)2-1
- Mar 21 · at Elche (A)1-2
- Mar 15 · v Espanyol (H)2-1
- Mar 7 · at Osasuna (A)2-2
Valencia
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Apr 11 · at Elche (A)0-1
- Apr 5 · v Celta de Vigo (H)2-3
- Mar 21 · at Sevilla (A)2-0
- Mar 14 · at Real Oviedo (A)0-1
- Mar 8 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | Mallorca | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 4-0-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 5-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.