La Liga (Spain) · Sun, May 10 · 12:00 · Mallorca vs Villarreal
Likeliest: Mallorca win · 39%
We make it 53% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 42%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Mallorca39%39%0
OursMarket
Draw27%27%0
OursMarket
Villarreal34%34%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 58% | −11 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 61% | −9 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 73% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 53% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Mallorca
WinWinDrawLossWin
- May 1 · at Girona (A)1-0
- Apr 25 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)1-2
- Apr 21 · v Valencia (H)1-1
- Apr 12 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)3-0
- Apr 4 · v Real Madrid (H)2-1
Villarreal
LossWinDrawWinWin
- May 2 · v Levante (H)5-1
- Apr 26 · v Celta de Vigo (H)2-1
- Apr 23 · at Real Oviedo (A)1-1
- Apr 12 · at Athletic Club (A)2-1
- Apr 6 · at Girona (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Mallorca | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.