Allsvenskan (Sweden) · Mon, Oct 12 · 17:00 · Malmö FF vs Kalmar
Likeliest: Malmö FF win · 51%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. The market says 53%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Malmö FF51%53%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%24%+2
OursMarket
Kalmar23%23%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 54% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 47% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 76% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 70% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Malmö FF
WinWinDrawWinLoss
- Sep 19 · at Västerås SK (A)0-2
- Sep 13 · v Örgryte IS (H)4-1
- Sep 7 · v AIK (H)0-0
- Aug 31 · at IK Sirius (A)1-0
- Aug 27 · at Lindö FF (A)5-1
Kalmar
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- Sep 20 · v BK Häcken (H)0-5
- Sep 13 · at IF Elfsborg (A)0-1
- Sep 7 · v Djurgården (H)0-1
- Aug 29 · at Halmstads BK (A)0-1
- Aug 23 · at Västerås SK (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Malmö FF | Kalmar |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 1-2-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.