UEFA Nations League · Sun, Oct 4 · 16:00 · Malta vs Andorra
Likeliest: Malta win · 56%
We make it 53% for both teams to score. The market says 40%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Malta56%56%0
OursMarket
Draw30%29%+2
OursMarket
Andorra14%16%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 38% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 40% | +13 |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | 84% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 44% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 78% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Malta
LossWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 1 · v Gibraltar (H)1-1
- Sep 27 · v Liechtenstein (H)2-0
- Sep 24 · at Andorra (A)2-1
- Jun 5 · at Azerbaijan (A)2-0
- Jun 1 · at Slovakia (A)1-2
Andorra
WinLossLossDrawLoss
- Sep 30 · at Lithuania (A)0-3
- Sep 27 · at Gibraltar (A)0-0
- Sep 24 · v Malta (H)1-2
- Jun 7 · at Kosovo (A)0-3
- Jun 4 · v Liechtenstein (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Malta | Andorra |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 10% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-2 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.