FIFA Intercontinental Cup (World) · Sat, Sep 19 · 13:00 · Mamelodi Sundowns vs Al-Ahli
Likeliest: Al-Ahli win · 50%
A tight one: we make it 50% for the away win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Mamelodi Sundowns25%27%−3
OursMarket
Draw25%25%+1
OursMarket
Al-Ahli50%48%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 61% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 50% | 52% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 75% | 73% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 33% | 37% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Mamelodi Sundowns
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Sep 12 · at Chippa United (A)1-1
- Sep 9 · v Siwelele FC (H)3-0
- Sep 6 · at Lamontville Golden Arrows (A)2-1
- Sep 2 · v Milford FC (H)2-0
- Aug 26 · v AmaZulu FC (H)5-2
Al-Ahli
LossWinLossWinDraw
- Sep 14 · v Pakhtakor Tashkent (H)1-1
- Sep 11 · v Al-Hazem (H)3-1
- Sep 8 · at Al-Qadsiah (A)2-3
- Sep 4 · v Al-Riyadh (H)5-0
- Sep 1 · at Al-Hilal (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Mamelodi Sundowns | Al-Ahli |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-4-0 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-2-0 | 2-0-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.