Premier Division (South Africa) · Wed, Sep 9 · 17:30 · Mamelodi Sundowns vs Siwelele FC
Likeliest: Mamelodi Sundowns win · 59%
A 20% away win. The market says 9%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Mamelodi Sundowns59%73%−14
OursMarket
Draw21%18%+3
OursMarket
Siwelele FC20%9%+11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 54% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 35% | +21 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 91% | −11 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 27% | +14 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 82% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 88% | −14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Mamelodi Sundowns
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Sep 6 · at Lamontville Golden Arrows (A)2-1
- Sep 2 · v Milford FC (H)2-0
- Aug 26 · v AmaZulu FC (H)5-2
- Aug 19 · v Marumo Gallants FC (H)2-0
- Aug 15 · at Kaizer Chiefs (A)1-1
Siwelele FC
DrawLossLossDrawLoss
- Sep 6 · at Kaizer Chiefs (A)2-3
- Aug 25 · v Chippa United (H)1-1
- Aug 15 · at AmaZulu FC (A)0-2
- Aug 12 · at Milford FC (A)0-1
- Aug 2 · v TS Galaxy (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Mamelodi Sundowns | Siwelele FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-2-0 | 0-5-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.