Champions League (Europe) · Tue, Oct 20 · 19:00 · Manchester City vs AEK Athens
Likeliest: Manchester City win · 92%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 92% for the home win. The market says 90%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Manchester City92%90%+2
OursMarket
Draw6%7%−2
OursMarket
AEK Athens2%3%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 76% | 74% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 32% | 36% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 98% | 97% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 8% | 10% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 94% | 93% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 98% | 97% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Manchester City
WinWinWinLossWin
- Oct 17 · v Ipswich Town (H)3-2
- Oct 14 · v PSG (H)2-4
- Oct 11 · at Liverpool (A)3-0
- Sep 20 · v Sunderland (H)5-3
- Sep 17 · v Norwich City (H)5-0
AEK Athens
DrawWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 14 · at Shakhtar Donetsk (A)1-3
- Oct 10 · v OFI Crete (H)3-0
- Sep 20 · at NPS Volos (A)2-1
- Sep 17 · v MGS Panserraikos (H)8-1
- Sep 13 · at Asteras Aktor (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Manchester City | AEK Athens |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 9-0-1 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-0-2 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.