Premier League (England) · Sun, Apr 19 · 15:30 · Manchester City vs Arsenal
Likeliest: Manchester City win · 41%
A 32% away win. The market says 23%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Manchester City41%51%−9
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Arsenal32%23%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 52% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 77% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 49% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 69% | −12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Manchester City
DrawLossWinWinWin
- Apr 12 · at Chelsea (A)3-0
- Apr 4 · v Liverpool (H)4-0
- Mar 22 · at Arsenal (A)2-0
- Mar 17 · v Real Madrid (H)1-2
- Mar 14 · at West Ham United (A)1-1
Arsenal
LossLossWinLossDraw
- Apr 15 · v Sporting CP (H)0-0
- Apr 11 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)1-2
- Apr 7 · at Sporting CP (A)1-0
- Apr 4 · at Southampton (A)1-2
- Mar 22 · v Manchester City (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Manchester City | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 6-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.