Women's Super League (England) · Sun, Oct 4 · 15:30 · Manchester City vs Arsenal
Likeliest: Arsenal win · 36%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 36% for the away win. The market says 36%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Manchester City35%37%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Arsenal36%36%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 55% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 51% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Manchester City
WinWinDrawWinDraw
- Oct 1 · v Real Madrid (H)1-1
- Sep 26 · at Charlton Athletic WFC (A)1-0
- Sep 22 · at FC Bayern München (A)2-2
- Sep 18 · v Liverpool FC (H)4-2
- Sep 13 · at Aston Villa (A)4-1
Arsenal
DrawDrawWinLossDraw
- Sep 30 · at Paris FC (A)2-2
- Sep 27 · at Chelsea FC (A)0-1
- Sep 22 · v HB Køge (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · v Manchester United (H)1-1
- Sep 13 · v Crystal Palace (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Manchester City | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-0 | 2-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 17% |
| Both teams scored | 83% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.