Premier League (England) · Sun, May 24 · 15:00 · Manchester City vs Aston Villa
Likeliest: Manchester City win · 58%
A 19% away win. The market says 11%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Manchester City58%73%−15
OursMarket
Draw23%16%+7
OursMarket
Aston Villa19%11%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 72% | −20 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 60% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 89% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 27% | +15 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 84% | −7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 86% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Manchester City
DrawWinWinWinDraw
- May 19 · at AFC Bournemouth (A)1-1
- May 16 · at Chelsea (A)1-0
- May 13 · v Crystal Palace (H)3-0
- May 9 · v Brentford (H)3-0
- May 4 · at Everton (A)3-3
Aston Villa
LossWinDrawWinWin
- May 20 · at SC Freiburg (A)3-0
- May 15 · v Liverpool (H)4-2
- May 10 · at Burnley (A)2-2
- May 7 · v Nottingham Forest (H)4-0
- May 3 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Manchester City | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-2-0 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.