Premier League (England) · Sun, Aug 23 · 13:00 · Manchester City vs Bournemouth
Likeliest: Manchester City win · 65%
We make it 46% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 33%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Manchester City65%64%+1
OursMarket
Draw19%20%−1
OursMarket
Bournemouth16%16%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 67% | −13 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 61% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 84% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 35% | 36% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 80% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 80% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Manchester City
WinWinDrawLossLoss
- Aug 16 · at Arsenal (A)0-3
- May 24 · v Aston Villa (H)1-2
- May 19 · at AFC Bournemouth (A)1-1
- May 16 · at Chelsea (A)1-0
- May 13 · v Crystal Palace (H)3-0
Bournemouth
WinWinDrawDrawDraw
- May 24 · at Nottingham Forest (A)1-1
- May 24 · at Nottingham Forest (A)1-1
- May 19 · v Manchester City (H)1-1
- May 9 · at Fulham (A)1-0
- May 3 · v Crystal Palace (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Manchester City | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 4-6-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 5-5-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.