EFL Cup (England) · Wed, Dec 17 · 19:30 · Manchester City vs Brentford
Likeliest: Manchester City win · 59%
We make it 48% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 41%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Manchester City59%64%−5
OursMarket
Draw22%20%+2
OursMarket
Brentford19%15%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 59% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 85% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 36% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 80% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 81% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Manchester City
WinWinWinWinWin
- Dec 14 · at Crystal Palace (A)3-0
- Dec 10 · at Real Madrid (A)2-1
- Dec 6 · v Sunderland (H)3-0
- Dec 2 · at Fulham (A)5-4
- Nov 29 · v Leeds United (H)3-2
Brentford
LossWinLossLossDraw
- Dec 14 · v Leeds United (H)1-1
- Dec 6 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)0-2
- Dec 3 · at Arsenal (A)0-2
- Nov 29 · v Burnley (H)3-1
- Nov 22 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Manchester City | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-0-2 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.7 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-0-1 | 3-0-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.