Premier League (England) · Sat, May 9 · 16:30 · Manchester City vs Brentford
Likeliest: Manchester City win · 64%
A tight one: we make it 64% for the home win. The market says 70%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Manchester City64%70%−6
OursMarket
Draw19%17%+2
OursMarket
Brentford17%13%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 68% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 58% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 87% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 36% | 30% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 83% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 84% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Manchester City
WinWinWinWinDraw
- May 4 · at Everton (A)3-3
- Apr 25 · v Southampton (H)2-1
- Apr 22 · at Burnley (A)1-0
- Apr 19 · v Arsenal (H)2-1
- Apr 12 · at Chelsea (A)3-0
Brentford
DrawDrawDrawLossWin
- May 2 · v West Ham United (H)3-0
- Apr 27 · at Manchester United (A)1-2
- Apr 18 · v Fulham (H)0-0
- Apr 11 · v Everton (H)2-2
- Mar 21 · at Leeds United (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Manchester City | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.