Premier League (England) · Wed, Jan 7 · 19:30 · Manchester City vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Likeliest: Manchester City win · 60%
We make it 38% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 32%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Manchester City60%66%−7
OursMarket
Draw22%19%+3
OursMarket
Brighton & Hove Albion18%15%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 68% | −7 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 85% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 34% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 81% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 82% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Manchester City
WinWinWinDrawDraw
- Jan 4 · v Chelsea (H)1-1
- Jan 1 · at Sunderland (A)0-0
- Dec 27 · at Nottingham Forest (A)2-1
- Dec 20 · v West Ham United (H)3-0
- Dec 17 · v Brentford (H)2-0
Brighton & Hove Albion
LossDrawLossDrawWin
- Jan 3 · v Burnley (H)2-0
- Dec 30 · at West Ham United (A)2-2
- Dec 27 · at Arsenal (A)1-2
- Dec 20 · v Sunderland (H)0-0
- Dec 13 · at Liverpool (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Manchester City | Brighton & Hove Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-2-0 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Manchester City form·Brighton & Hove Albion form·Head-to-head record