Premier League (England) · Sun, Jan 4 · 17:30 · Manchester City vs Chelsea
Likeliest: Manchester City win · 54%
A tight one: we make it 54% for the home win. The market says 59%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Manchester City54%59%−5
OursMarket
Draw25%22%+3
OursMarket
Chelsea21%20%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 64% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 61% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 80% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 41% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 78% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 75% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Manchester City
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Jan 1 · at Sunderland (A)0-0
- Dec 27 · at Nottingham Forest (A)2-1
- Dec 20 · v West Ham United (H)3-0
- Dec 17 · v Brentford (H)2-0
- Dec 14 · at Crystal Palace (A)3-0
Chelsea
WinWinDrawLossDraw
- Dec 30 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)2-2
- Dec 27 · v Aston Villa (H)1-2
- Dec 20 · at Newcastle United (A)2-2
- Dec 16 · at Cardiff City (A)3-1
- Dec 13 · v Everton (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Manchester City | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-1-1 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-0-1 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.