Premier League (England) · Sat, Sep 5 · 14:00 · Manchester City vs Coventry City
Likeliest: Manchester City win · 54%
A 21% away win. The market says 7%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Manchester City54%82%−28
OursMarket
Draw25%11%+13
OursMarket
Coventry City21%7%+14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 71% | −23 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 48% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 93% | −14 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 18% | +28 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 89% | −13 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 92% | −20 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Manchester City
DrawLossLossWinWin
- Aug 28 · at Crystal Palace (A)4-1
- Aug 23 · v Bournemouth (H)2-1
- Aug 16 · at Arsenal (A)0-3
- May 24 · v Aston Villa (H)1-2
- May 19 · at AFC Bournemouth (A)1-1
Coventry City
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Aug 29 · v Hull City (H)0-1
- Aug 25 · at Plymouth Argyle (A)4-2
- Aug 21 · at Arsenal (A)0-3
- May 2 · at Watford (A)4-0
- Apr 26 · v Wrexham (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Manchester City | Coventry City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.