Premier League (England) · Wed, Feb 11 · 19:30 · Manchester City vs Fulham
Likeliest: Manchester City win · 56%
A 21% away win. The market says 12%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Manchester City56%70%−13
OursMarket
Draw23%18%+5
OursMarket
Fulham21%12%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 63% | −4 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 54% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 88% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 30% | +13 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 82% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 85% | −12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Manchester City
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Feb 8 · at Liverpool (A)2-1
- Feb 4 · v Newcastle United (H)3-1
- Feb 1 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)2-2
- Jan 28 · v Galatasaray (H)2-0
- Jan 24 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)2-0
Fulham
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Feb 7 · v Everton (H)1-2
- Feb 1 · at Manchester United (A)2-3
- Jan 24 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)2-1
- Jan 17 · at Leeds United (A)0-1
- Jan 10 · v Middlesbrough (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Manchester City | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-2-0 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.