Premier League (England) · Sat, Oct 17 · 14:00 · Manchester City vs Ipswich Town
Likeliest: Manchester City win · 81%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 81% for the home win. The market says 78%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Manchester City81%78%+3
OursMarket
Draw12%14%−2
OursMarket
Ipswich Town7%8%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 70% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 53% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 93% | 92% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 19% | 22% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 88% | 86% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 92% | 90% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.4 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Manchester City
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 14 · v PSG (H)2-4
- Oct 11 · at Liverpool (A)3-0
- Sep 20 · v Sunderland (H)5-3
- Sep 17 · v Norwich City (H)5-0
- Sep 13 · at Manchester United (A)1-0
Ipswich Town
LossWinLossLossWin
- Oct 10 · v Fulham (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · at Everton (A)0-1
- Sep 15 · v Arsenal (H)2-4
- Sep 12 · at Crystal Palace (A)3-2
- Sep 4 · v Liverpool (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Manchester City | Ipswich Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-0-2 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.5 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-0-2 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.