Premier League (England) · Sun, Feb 23 · 16:30 · Manchester City vs Liverpool
Likeliest: Manchester City win · 50%
A tight one: we make it 50% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Manchester City50%——
OursMarket
Draw21%——
OursMarket
Liverpool26%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Manchester City
LossWinLossWinLoss
- Feb 19 · at Real Madrid (A)1-3
- Feb 15 · v Newcastle United (H)4-0
- Feb 11 · v Real Madrid (H)2-3
- Feb 8 · at Leyton Orient (A)2-1
- Feb 2 · at Arsenal (A)1-5
Liverpool
DrawDrawWinDrawWin
- Feb 22 · v Cerro (H)2-1
- Feb 19 · at Aston Villa (A)2-2
- Feb 16 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)2-1
- Feb 15 · at Wanderers (A)1-1
- Feb 12 · at Everton (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Manchester City | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.6 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-1 | 2-5-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.