Premier League (England) · Sun, Nov 9 · 16:30 · Manchester City vs Liverpool
Likeliest: Manchester City win · 45%
A tight one: we make it 45% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Manchester City45%——
OursMarket
Draw26%——
OursMarket
Liverpool30%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Manchester City
WinLossWinWinWin
- Nov 5 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)4-1
- Nov 2 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)3-1
- Oct 29 · at Swansea City (A)3-1
- Oct 26 · at Aston Villa (A)0-1
- Oct 21 · at Villarreal (A)2-0
Liverpool
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Nov 7 · at Cerro Largo (A)0-2
- Nov 4 · v Real Madrid (H)1-0
- Nov 1 · v Aston Villa (H)2-0
- Nov 1 · v Juventud (H)0-1
- Oct 29 · v Crystal Palace (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | Manchester City | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-1-1 | 5-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-0-1 | 4-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.