FA Cup (England) · Sat, Apr 4 · 11:45 · Manchester City vs Liverpool
Likeliest: Manchester City win · 58%
A 58% home win. The market says 54%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Manchester City58%54%+4
OursMarket
Draw22%23%−1
OursMarket
Liverpool20%23%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 62% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 77% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 46% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 70% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Manchester City
WinLossDrawLossWin
- Mar 22 · at Arsenal (A)2-0
- Mar 17 · v Real Madrid (H)1-2
- Mar 14 · at West Ham United (A)1-1
- Mar 11 · at Real Madrid (A)0-3
- Mar 7 · at Newcastle United (A)3-1
Liverpool
WinLossLossDrawDraw
- Mar 31 · at Atlético Progreso (A)3-3
- Mar 24 · v Central Español (H)3-3
- Mar 21 · at Racing (A)0-1
- Mar 21 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)1-2
- Mar 18 · v Galatasaray (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | Manchester City | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.