Women's Super League (England) · Fri, Sep 18 · 18:00 · Manchester City vs Liverpool FC
Likeliest: Manchester City win · 74%
We make it 61% for both teams to score. The market says 50%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Manchester City74%71%+2
OursMarket
Draw16%17%−2
OursMarket
Liverpool FC11%12%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 62% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 50% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 88% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 27% | 29% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 85% | 83% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 87% | 86% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Manchester City
WinWin
- Sep 13 · at Aston Villa (A)4-1
- Sep 6 · v Birmingham City W.F.C. (H)3-1
Liverpool FC
WinDraw
- Sep 13 · v Tottenham FC (H)1-1
- Sep 6 · at Charlton Athletic WFC (A)4-0