Premier League (England) · Sat, Feb 15 · 15:00 · Manchester City vs Newcastle United
Likeliest: Manchester City win · 46%
A tight one: we make it 46% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Manchester City46%——
OursMarket
Draw22%——
OursMarket
Newcastle United32%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Manchester City
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Feb 11 · v Real Madrid (H)2-3
- Feb 8 · at Leyton Orient (A)2-1
- Feb 2 · at Arsenal (A)1-5
- Jan 29 · v Club Brugge (H)3-1
- Jan 25 · v Chelsea (H)3-1
Newcastle United
LossWinLossWinWin
- Feb 8 · at Birmingham City (A)3-2
- Feb 5 · v Arsenal (H)2-0
- Feb 1 · v Fulham (H)1-2
- Jan 25 · at Southampton (A)3-1
- Jan 18 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)1-4
| Last 10 games | Manchester City | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 7-0-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.3 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 78% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 33% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-0-1 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Manchester City form·Newcastle United form·Head-to-head record