EFL Cup (England) · Wed, Feb 4 · 20:00 · Manchester City vs Newcastle United
Likeliest: Manchester City win · 57%
A tight one: we make it 57% for the home win. The market says 53%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Manchester City57%53%+3
OursMarket
Draw22%23%−1
OursMarket
Newcastle United21%23%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 60% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 77% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 47% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 70% | +3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Manchester City
LossLossWinWinDraw
- Feb 1 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)2-2
- Jan 28 · v Galatasaray (H)2-0
- Jan 24 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)2-0
- Jan 20 · at Bodø / Glimt (A)1-3
- Jan 17 · at Manchester United (A)0-2
Newcastle United
DrawWinLossDrawLoss
- Jan 31 · at Liverpool (A)1-4
- Jan 28 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)1-1
- Jan 25 · v Aston Villa (H)0-2
- Jan 21 · v PSV (H)3-0
- Jan 18 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Manchester City | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.