Premier League (England) · Sat, Feb 21 · 20:00 · Manchester City vs Newcastle United
Likeliest: Manchester City win · 54%
A 24% away win. The market says 17%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Manchester City54%63%−9
OursMarket
Draw22%20%+2
OursMarket
Newcastle United24%17%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 65% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 60% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 83% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 37% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 80% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 78% | −9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Manchester City
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Feb 14 · v Salford City (H)2-0
- Feb 11 · v Fulham (H)3-0
- Feb 8 · at Liverpool (A)2-1
- Feb 4 · v Newcastle United (H)3-1
- Feb 1 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)2-2
Newcastle United
LossLossWinWinWin
- Feb 18 · at Qarabağ (A)6-1
- Feb 14 · at Aston Villa (A)3-1
- Feb 10 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)2-1
- Feb 7 · v Brentford (H)2-3
- Feb 4 · at Manchester City (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Manchester City | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-2-0 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Manchester City form·Newcastle United form·Head-to-head record