EFL Cup (England) · Thu, Sep 17 · 18:30 · Manchester City vs Norwich City
Likeliest: Manchester City win · 86%
A tight one: we make it 86% for the home win. The market says 84%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Manchester City86%84%+2
OursMarket
Draw8%10%−2
OursMarket
Norwich City6%6%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 78% | 75% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 49% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 94% | 94% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 14% | 16% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 92% | 90% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 94% | 94% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 2.4 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Manchester City
WinWinWinWinWin
- Sep 13 · at Manchester United (A)1-0
- Sep 8 · at FC Porto (A)2-0
- Sep 5 · v Coventry City (H)1-0
- Aug 28 · at Crystal Palace (A)4-1
- Aug 23 · v Bournemouth (H)2-1
Norwich City
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Sep 12 · at Middlesbrough (A)3-4
- Sep 9 · v Birmingham City (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · at Sheffield United (A)3-1
- Sep 1 · at Stoke City (A)0-1
- Aug 29 · v Burnley (H)4-1
| Last 10 games | Manchester City | Norwich City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 5-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 5-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.