Premier League (England) · Wed, Mar 4 · 19:30 · Manchester City vs Nottingham Forest
Likeliest: Manchester City win · 56%
We make it 62% for both teams to score. The market says 53%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Manchester City56%68%−13
OursMarket
Draw22%19%+3
OursMarket
Nottingham Forest22%13%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 60% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 53% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 87% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 32% | +13 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 81% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 84% | −12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Manchester City
WinWinWinWinWin
- Feb 28 · at Leeds United (A)1-0
- Feb 21 · v Newcastle United (H)2-1
- Feb 14 · v Salford City (H)2-0
- Feb 11 · v Fulham (H)3-0
- Feb 8 · at Liverpool (A)2-1
Nottingham Forest
DrawWinLossLossLoss
- Mar 1 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)1-2
- Feb 26 · v Fenerbahçe (H)1-2
- Feb 22 · v Liverpool (H)0-1
- Feb 19 · at Fenerbahçe (A)3-0
- Feb 11 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Manchester City | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-1-1 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-2-0 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Manchester City form·Nottingham Forest form·Head-to-head record