Champions League (Europe) · Wed, Oct 14 · 19:00 · Manchester City vs PSG
Likeliest: Manchester City win · 41%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 41% for the home win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Manchester City41%42%−2
OursMarket
Draw24%23%0
OursMarket
PSG36%34%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 68% | 67% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 66% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 55% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 2.3 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Manchester City
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 11 · at Liverpool (A)3-0
- Sep 20 · v Sunderland (H)5-3
- Sep 17 · v Norwich City (H)5-0
- Sep 13 · at Manchester United (A)1-0
- Sep 8 · at FC Porto (A)2-0
PSG
LossWinWinWinWin
- Oct 10 · v Le Mans (H)3-1
- Sep 20 · at Olympique de Marseille (A)2-1
- Sep 13 · at Stade Brestois (A)1-0
- Sep 9 · v ŠK Slovan Bratislava (H)6-1
- Sep 4 · v AS Monaco (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Manchester City | PSG |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-0-2 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-0-1 | 2-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.