Premier League (England) · Sat, Dec 6 · 15:00 · Manchester City vs Sunderland
Likeliest: Manchester City win · 66%
A 15% away win. The market says 9%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Manchester City66%75%−9
OursMarket
Draw19%16%+3
OursMarket
Sunderland15%9%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 63% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 91% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 34% | 25% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 84% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 82% | 89% | −8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Manchester City
WinLossLossWinWin
- Dec 2 · at Fulham (A)5-4
- Nov 29 · v Leeds United (H)3-2
- Nov 25 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)0-2
- Nov 22 · at Newcastle United (A)1-2
- Nov 9 · v Liverpool (H)3-0
Sunderland
DrawDrawLossWinDraw
- Dec 3 · at Liverpool (A)1-1
- Nov 29 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)3-2
- Nov 22 · at Fulham (A)0-1
- Nov 8 · v Arsenal (H)2-2
- Nov 3 · v Everton (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Manchester City | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-0-3 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-0-2 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.