Premier League (England) · Sat, Dec 20 · 15:00 · Manchester City vs West Ham United
Likeliest: Manchester City win · 66%
We make it 42% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 30%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Manchester City66%79%−13
OursMarket
Draw17%13%+4
OursMarket
West Ham United17%8%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 70% | −11 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 92% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 34% | 21% | +13 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 87% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 91% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Manchester City
WinWinWinWinWin
- Dec 17 · v Brentford (H)2-0
- Dec 14 · at Crystal Palace (A)3-0
- Dec 10 · at Real Madrid (A)2-1
- Dec 6 · v Sunderland (H)3-0
- Dec 2 · at Fulham (A)5-4
West Ham United
DrawLossDrawDrawLoss
- Dec 14 · v Aston Villa (H)2-3
- Dec 7 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)1-1
- Dec 4 · at Manchester United (A)1-1
- Nov 30 · v Liverpool (H)0-2
- Nov 22 · at AFC Bournemouth (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Manchester City | West Ham United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-0-2 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-0-1 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Manchester City form·West Ham United form·Head-to-head record