Premier League (England) · Mon, Dec 15 · 20:00 · Manchester United vs AFC Bournemouth
Likeliest: Manchester United win · 40%
A 37% away win. The market says 24%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Manchester United40%53%−13
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
AFC Bournemouth37%24%+13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 62% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 76% | −13 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 47% | +13 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 69% | −17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Manchester United
DrawLossWinDrawWin
- Dec 8 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)4-1
- Dec 4 · v West Ham United (H)1-1
- Nov 30 · at Crystal Palace (A)2-1
- Nov 24 · v Everton (H)0-1
- Nov 8 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)2-2
AFC Bournemouth
LossDrawLossLossDraw
- Dec 6 · v Chelsea (H)0-0
- Dec 2 · v Everton (H)0-1
- Nov 29 · at Sunderland (A)2-3
- Nov 22 · v West Ham United (H)2-2
- Nov 9 · at Aston Villa (A)0-4
| Last 10 games | Manchester United | AFC Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Manchester United form·AFC Bournemouth form·Head-to-head record